Food Prices and Food Production in Selected West African Countries: The Moderating Effect of Fragility

The relationship between food prices and production significantly shapes consumer affordability and producer income in low-to-middle-income nations. While increased prices can stimulate production, excessive fluctuations pose threats to financial stability and food security, especially in regions like West Africa prone to conflicts and disruptions. This study investigated the impact of food prices on food production in selected West African countries, exploring the moderating effect of fragility on this connection. Employing non-stationary heterogeneous panel models, including Pooled Mean Group (PMG), Mean Group (MG), and Dynamic Fixed Effect (DFE) estimators based on Hausman test results, the study revealed that agricultural lands and fertiliser application drive food production in the long run. Positive links are found between food prices, agricultural employment, and food production, with fragility moderating these relationships in some instances. The study also found that fragility negatively affects food production, showing its adverse influence in several West African nations. The study recommends that governments address fragility by focusing on conflict resolution, institution strengthening, and political stability. Additionally, it suggests promoting land management policies facilitating farmer access, encouraging fertiliser use, and implementing market-driven incentives to enhance price stability and market access for fair farmer compensation.