Prediction of China’s unconventional natural gas production based on grey waveform prediction model and non-homogeneous exponential discrete model

The proposal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals not only brings opportunities and development potential but also poses challenges to China’s natural gas industry. As a major manufacturing country, China has an increasing demand for energy resources. Unconventional natural gas plays an important role of the country's natural gas supply, thereby making production forecasts crucial for guiding the future development of this sector. Given the significant fluctuations in the production rates of unconventional natural gas (including shale gas, CBM, and tight gas) in recent years and the varying applicability of different production prediction models, this paper selects the grey waveform prediction model to forecast the future trends in China’s tight gas production, and the non-homogeneous exponential discrete NDGM (1.1.K) model to predict the trends in shale gas and CBM production. Accurate forecasts of unconventional natural gas production in China can provide valuable insights into prospective energy supply and development trends. The prediction results indicate that the overall growth rate of shale gas production in China will slow down from 2024 to 2035, reaching 279.8 × 10 8 m 3 in 2030 and 286.1 × 10 8 m 3 in 2035. CBM production in China will continue to rise steadily from 2024 to 2035, with 158.3 × 10 8 m 3 in 2028 and over 200 × 10 8 m 3 in 2035. Tight gas production in China will surpass 720 × 10 8 m 3 in 2027 and 880 × 10 8 m 3 in 2035. The unconventional natural gas production in China will exceed 1000 × 10 8 m 3 in 2024, reach 1235 × 10 8 m 3 in 2030 and 1377 × 10 8 m 3 in 2035, with tight gas represents a significant growth for the acceleration of unconventional natural gas production. As China's natural gas consumption continues to rise, the Chinese government should implement relevant development policies to promote the production of unconventional natural gas, encourage increased investment from enterprises, and alleviate the contradiction between the supply and demand of natural gas within the country.