Мathematical model of the probability of detection of a point target by the operator of an unmanned aircraft

The paper develops a mathematical model of the probability of detecting a point target by an operator of an optoelectronic device installed on an unmanned aerial vehicle using the Johnson criterion and the binomial law of repeated trials. The purpose of the study is to assess the probability of detecting a target using a sensor system under various external factors. The study considers the impact of various conditions, such as lighting, weather conditions, and sensor system characteristics on the effectiveness of target detection. During the study, a mathematical model was built that allows determining the probability of successful target detection using optoelectronic devices. The model involves using the binomial law to take into account the number of detection attempts and applying the Johnson criterion to increase accuracy. This approach allows taking into account factors that reduce detection efficiency, and also allows optimizing the sensor operating parameters depending on operating conditions. The results of the study showed that with optimal sensor parameters and environmental conditions, the probability of successful detection can be significantly increased. Modeling various scenarios allows obtaining a more accurate estimate of the probability and reducing the probability of errors. These data are important for improving detection technologies, allowing for more efficient sensor tuning, which improves the accuracy and reliability of the system. The results obtained have important practical significance for optimizing the use of optoelectronic systems in unmanned aerial vehicles. This model makes it possible to minimize the risks of false positives and increase the accuracy of target detection in real conditions. Such a development is useful not only for the defense sector, but also for civilian applications, such as environmental monitoring and security.