Regularities of blame in great and middle populations of Ukrain

The process of fire occurrence in settlements of Ukraine with a population of 50 to 500 thousand people for the period from 2021 to 2023 was studied. The statistical hypothesis that the process of fire occurrence in settlements can be described by statistical laws was tested. It was established that the process of fire occurrence in large and medium-sized settlements of Ukraine in most cases can be described by statistical laws. It was found that for the period of 2021, the process of fire occurrence could be described by Poisson and geometric distribution laws, which in percentage terms is 44 % and 58 % of cases, respectively. There were also cases when, for individual settlements, the specified process could be described by two distribution laws at once, which in percentage terms is 26 % of cases and is not sufficiently clear. It was not possible to establish a single distribution law for 24 % of the studied settlements. For the period of 2022 and 2023, the process of fire occurrence could be described by Poisson, a geometric and exponential distribution law, which in percentage terms for the period of 2022 is 36 %, 64 % and 6 % of cases, and for the period of 2023 – 36 %, 58 % and 2 % of cases, respectively. The number of cases when the mentioned process could be described at once by several distribution laws for the period of 2022 is 24 %, and for the period of 2023 – 16 %. It was not possible to establish any distribution law for the period of 2022 for 20 % of the studied settlements, and for the period of 2023 this indicator was also 20 %. In the future, it is planned to investigate the level of reliability of forecasts of the number of fires when using known forecasting methods during martial law.