Navigating the AI frontier: Insights from the Ukraine conflict for NATO’s governance role in military AI

As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes increasingly integrated in the military domain, calls for its regulation are growing. In this paper, I argue that although civil society, academics and citizens support the strong regulation of military AI, such regulation is unlikely to materialise, even less so via formal organisations such as NATO. The current war, in which Ukraine is defending itself against a Russian invasion, underscores three key reasons for this: blurred borders with the civilian sector; the weaponisation of civilian life; and meaningful steps towards autonomy. Given these factors, the paper argues that behavioural steps are most likely to be feasible in the short term.