Predicting the Distribution of Ailanthus altissima Using Deep Learning-Based Analysis of Satellite Imagery

Invasive species negatively affect ecosystems, economies, and human health by outcompeting native species and altering habitats. Ailanthus altissima, also known as the tree of heaven, an invasive species native to China that has spread to North America and Europe. Commonly found in urban areas and forestland, these invasive plants cause ecological and economic damage to local ecosystems; they are also the preferred host of other invasive species. Ecological stability refers to the balance and harmony in species populations. Invasive species like A. altissima disrupt this stability by outcompeting native species, leading to imbalances, and there was a lack of research and data on the tree of heaven. To address this issue, this study leveraged deep learning and satellite imagery recognition to generate reliable and comprehensive prediction maps in the USA. Four deep learning models were trained to recognize satellite images obtained from Google Earth, with A. altissima data obtained from the Life Alta Murgia project, LIFE12 BIO/IT/000213. The best performing fine-tuned model using binary classification achieved an AUC score of 90%. This model was saved locally and used to predict the density and probability of A. altissima in the USA. Additionally, multi-class classification methods corroborated the findings, demonstrating similar observational outcomes. The production of these predictive distribution maps is a novel method which offers an innovative and cost-effective alternative for extensive field surveys, providing reliable data for concurrent and future research on the environmental impact of A. altissima.