Will they or won't they make it in time? The role of contextual and behavioral predictors in reaching deadlines of mandatory assignments

Procrastination and other forms of irrational delay are widespread among university students, leading to an array of potential negative consequences. While the reasons for this type of behavior are manifold and many facilitating factors have been identified, which of these factors are able to predict dilatory behavior in online/distance education has received comparatively little attention in the literature so far. In this study, we intended to compare the performance of two sets of objective predictors of delay, namely contextual variables based on characteristics of the assignment, and behavioral variables based on log data. Using historical data drawn from our university's learning management system, we calculated Bayesian multilevel models. The strongest and most consistent predictors of dilatory behavior turned out to be interval between the first click on the assignment and its deadline, the interval between the start of a block and the first click on the assignment, the number of clicks on the assignment, and the deadline type. The combination of both sets of predictors slightly improved the model's performance.