The Spatiotemporal Evolution of Geo-Disaster Resilience in China and the Impact Mechanism of Environmental Governance

The increasing frequency of extreme climate events has posed severe challenges to China’s socio-economic development and ecological environment due to geological disasters. Therefore, there is an urgent need for effective adaptive strategies to enhance geo-disaster resilience. Environmental governance, as an effective measure to reduce risks from extreme climates and disasters while promoting high-quality social development, remains underexplored in terms of its impact on geo-disaster resilience. This study innovatively constructs a resilience assessment framework that considers extreme climate and geo-disaster intensity, integrating various statistical methods, including the Super-Efficiency Slacks-Based Measure Data Envelopment Analysis (SBM-DEA) model, spatial Markov chains, and methods such as Geodetector and the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR), to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution of geo-disaster resilience in China from 2007 to 2022, while also analyzing the mechanisms through which environmental governance influences resilience and its spatiotemporal variations. The findings indicate that China’s geo-disaster resilience exhibits unstable growth with significant regional disparities. Spatially, resilience shows notable spillover effects and a tendency toward convergence within similar regions. Environmental governance unevenly enhances resilience over time and space: soil and water conservation and afforestation are generally effective measures, while the contributions of ecological water replenishment, environmental facility management personnel, fiscal expenditure, and nature reserve protection vary by region. This research offers key insights into improving geo-disaster resilience and optimizing environmental governance strategies to enhance China’s disaster response capacity and regional sustainable development.