Technical note: Proposed method to objectively evaluate gunshot residue comparisons does not generalize to different-location settings

Previously, we proposed a likelihood ratio system for pairwise source comparison of gunshot residue (GSR) samples based on elemental composition. Only pairs of GSR samples from the same location type (e.g., hand-hand) were considered, as the data originates from casework and ground truth is not available for samples from different location types (e.g., hand-cartridge case). This lack of sample pairs taken from different locations is a limitation, as casework will usually require such sample pairs to be evaluated. In this study, we test the impact of this sampling location limitation by evaluating the model with an experimental dataset for which ground truth was available for same-location as well as different-location pairs. We find a sharp decline in the performance of the model, with C<sub>llr</sub> deteriorating from 0.35 to 0.98. Additional exploration of various system extensions does not lead to significant improvements. We discuss the potential causes for this decline and conclude the system is not currently ready for application in forensic casework.

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Publication Details

Journal
Forensic Science International
Published
2025-02-21
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forsciint.2025.112414
Primary Topic
Gun Ownership and Violence Research
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Technical note: Proposed method to objectively evaluate gunshot residue comparisons does not generalize to different-location settings

Colby Ham, Kim de Bie, Rolf J.F. Ypma, Wauter Bosma et al.
Forensic Science International
Gun Ownership and Violence Research
article

Technical note: Proposed method to objectively evaluate gunshot residue comparisons does not generalize to different-location settings

Colby Ham, Kim de Bie, Rolf J.F. Ypma, Wauter Bosma, Simone Ariëns, Corina Kukurin, M Vinkenoog, T L Dirkse
article en

Abstract

Previously, we proposed a likelihood ratio system for pairwise source comparison of gunshot residue (GSR) samples based on elemental composition. Only pairs of GSR samples from the same location type (e.g., hand-hand) were considered, as the data originates from casework and ground truth is not available for samples from different location types (e.g., hand-cartridge case). This lack of sample pairs taken from different locations is a limitation, as casework will usually require such sample pairs to be evaluated. In this study, we test the impact of this sampling location limitation by evaluating the model with an experimental dataset for which ground truth was available for same-location as well as different-location pairs. We find a sharp decline in the performance of the model, with C<sub>llr</sub> deteriorating from 0.35 to 0.98. Additional exploration of various system extensions does not lead to significant improvements. We discuss the potential causes for this decline and conclude the system is not currently ready for application in forensic casework.

Forensic Science InternationalVol. 369
Netherlands Forensic Institute (NL)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 96%
Gun Ownership and Violence Research
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Technical note: Proposed method to objectively evaluate gunshot residue comparisons does not generalize to different-location settings — Colby Ham, Kim de Bie, et al. · Forensic Science International (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS