Trend and variability of rainfall in recent years in Iraq: A physical perspective

Iraq has experienced increased occurrences and elevated intensity of natural disasters focused on weather elements including droughts alongside floods and temperature fluctuations throughout the recent years. The research investigates rainfall pattern fluctuations and trends across Iraq but dedicates particular attention to the capital city Baghdad during the past decades. Establishing intensity-duration-frequency curves requires the study to combine rainfall data obtained from ground-based measurements and satellite-derived estimates across major Iraqi cities. The curved models help the analysis reveal changes in how rainfall occurs through data on severe event magnitudes and their occurrences. Studies indicate that Iraq traditionally showed varied rainfall patterns until recent times brought on distinct rainfall patterns displaying an elevated risk of dry periods and intense precipitation floods. This paper examines physical drivers of rainfall pattern changes along with their consequences for water resources management and agricultural practices and disaster prevention initiatives in Iraq.