Meeting the Growing Demand for Nutri-Cereals: A Supply Assessment for Maharashtra, India

Background: Millets offer solutions for multiple challenges, including malnutrition, food insecurity, resource scarcity, agricultural production risks due to climate change and lifestyle-related health problems. Hence, increasing millet production and consumption contributes to achieving the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2, 3, 12 and 13. The Government of India is actively promoting these crops to benefit both people and the planet. In recent years, there has been a growing awareness among urban populations about the nutritional benefits of millet. However, their supply has dwindled over the years due to a decrease in the land area dedicated to millet cultivation, which high-value commercial crops have replaced. If this trend continues, it could lead to a potential shortage of millets within the country. Methods: In this study, the anticipation demand and supply of millets in the Maharashtra state of India was projected by analyzing consumer expenditure data from the National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) for the year 2011-12. Demand estimation was conducted through three distinct methodologies; static projections, normative benchmarks and behavioristic- Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QuAIDS) model allowing for comprehensive insights into consumption patterns and elasticity responses. Result: The projected demand for millets by 2036 is estimated at 3.90 million tons, while the supply is anticipated to be 0.76 million tons, resulting in a deficit of -3.14 million tonnes. If the current trends in cultivated area and crop yield persist, a substantial net deficit will be observed across all millet varieties included in the study. To mitigate this shortfall, strategic enhancing yield potential through initiatives as distributing high-quality seeds, incorporating biofortified varieties, promoting awareness, implementing price incentives and providing facilities for processing.