Project management based on the methods of probability theory and simulation modeling

Methods. The results are obtained by applying the following methods: analysis and synthesis – in identifying potential processes in project management in which the apparatus of probability theory and simulation modeling can be applied; grouping – in distributing the methods of probabil – ty theory and simulation analysis according to the theories of project management. Results. The possibilities of applying probability theory and simulation modeling methods at different stages of project management are determined. The differences between the functional capabilities of probability theory when used in project management, depending on the cascade or Agile approaches, are demonstrated. The positive effect of including probabilistic analysis is determined, which allows better taking into account the multifactorial nature and variability of conditions that determine the success of project implementation. It is established that simulation and probabilistic approaches make management more flexible and effective, reduce the risks of project failure, ensure the achievement of goals in conditions of uncertainty, and optimize management decisions, since they are based on the deep analysis of processes. Novelty. The article presents an organized system of approaches to the use of probability theory and simulation modeling methods in project management, which involves the use of adaptive tools and approaches to make informed and effective decisions in today's dynamic environment. Practical value. There are proposed approaches to the use of probability theory and simulation modeling to determine the critical path of the project, the economic efficiency of the project, the speed of task completion, and the risks of return on investment.