Understanding urban sprawl in Baqubah, Iraq: A study of influential factors

Urban sprawl poses significant challenges to urban sustainability, spatial efficiency, and social equity, particularly in mid-sized cities within resource-constrained settings. This study addresses critical gaps in understanding the interplay between urban sprawl and densification processes in Baqubah, Iraq, a city experiencing rapid population growth within fixed spatial boundaries. Employing an integrated methodological framework, this research utilized satellite imagery from Landsat 7, 8, and 9 datasets, preprocessed with radiometric corrections using ENVI, GIS, and Google Earth software. Land cover data were classified through the maximum likelihood classification method to reveal spatial transformations over three decades (1992, 2007, and 2022). To analyze urban growth dynamics, the Holdren Index quantified the contributions of population growth and per capita land use changes. Spatial autocorrelation methods, including Moran's Index, High/Low Clustering, and Hot Spot Analysis, were applied to detect clustering patterns and significant spatial hotspots. Additionally, the MICMAC structural analysis method identified interdependencies among key drivers of urban sprawl. The findings indicate that urban growth in Baqubah from 1992 to 2022 has predominantly manifested as densification, with built-up areas increasing from 33.29% to 46.55%. Factors such as housing investment, shape index, economic growth, and planning policies emerged as critical drivers shaping these patterns. The research emphasizes sustainable strategies, including vertical expansion, green infrastructure preservation, participatory governance, and advanced spatial monitoring, to mitigate the adverse effects of sprawl while promoting sustainable urban development. These insights offer a replicable framework for addressing urbanization challenges in comparable mid-sized cities.