The long-lasting shadow of terror and political conflict: Effects of the 2015-2016 national security events on Turkey’s inbound tourism

This paper examines the impact of the 2015-2016 national security events on inbound tourism in Turkey. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), the study reveals significant and persistent causal effects on tourism metrics: Between 2015 and 2019, international tourist arrivals were 36% lower, overnight stays 41% lower, and expenditures 18% lower, on average, than in a “synthetic” Turkey constructed as a counterfactual. Although increased security stabilization from 2018 onwards helped Turkey’s tourism recover, tourism activities were still far below their counterfactuals even in 2019. This highlights a substantial negative long-term impact of severe security incidents on international tourism.