Dynamic evolution of residents' garbage sorting behavior under policy-driven change: Evidence from multi-wave data deduction in Shanghai

The cultivation of residents' garbage sorting behavior (RGSB) is a long-term process. Shanghai's garbage sorting spans 20 years, and different external force policies have been implemented. Taking Shanghai as a case, this work deduces the effectiveness of external force combination policies into continuous three stages. For the first time, an extended theory of planned behavior (TPB) model with multi-wave data is developed to analyze how external policies affect the RGSB through the action of internal elements during three stages. Unlike internal driving elements, there are differences in the effectiveness of external driving elements on the RGSB at different stages. Face-to-face publicity and education by instructors and incentive measure are effective in the first stage, but in the third stage they become inefficient. By longitudinal analysis, the overall trend of the attitude (ATT), perceived behavioral control (PBC), and garbage sorting intention (GSI) increases over time, while the RGSB increases and then decreases. Importantly, the GSI and the RGSB of floating population during the third stage should be much stressed. The novelty of this work resides in its comprehensive analysis of the dynamic evolution mechanisms of the RGSB, influenced by both internal and external driving elements. • Dynamic evolution of residents' garbage sorting behaviour in continuous three stages. • Developing extended theory of planned behaviour frame with external policy elements. • Effective differences of external policies in three stages，Shanghai case. • Using structure equation model and longitudinal analysis to explain impact mechanism.