Evaluation and Obstacle Factors of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Tai’an, China

In China, rapid economic and social development has caused the carrying capacity of water resources in some areas to reach or exceed the limit, threatening the stability of resources and the development of the national economy. In view of the current situation of serious water shortage in Tai’an City, we constructed a comprehensive evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity in Tai’an City by using socio-economic and water resources data from 2016 and 2023. Our method covers multiple dimensions such as natural geography, socio-economy, water quantity, ecological environment, and resource utilization. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy weighting methods were applied to determine the weights of the indicators, the set pair analysis theory (SPA) and variable fuzzy set theory (VFS) were used to establish a comprehensive evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity, and the level of water resources carrying capacity and obstacles encountered in improving water resources carrying capacity in Tai’an were evaluated and analyzed. Our results show that Tai’an is generally developing in a coordinated manner across the country, but there are obvious differences in the carrying capacity of water resources in different areas, which require the development of targeted resource management strategies. The study has the potential to advance regional water resources carrying capacity.