Green water availability and water-limited crop yields under a changing climate in Ethiopia

Abstract. Climate change is expected to influence future agricultural water availability, posing particular challenges in rainfed agricultural systems. This study aims to analyze the climatology of green water availability and water-limited attainable yield (AY) – the maximum crop yield achieved with available green water under optimal soil nutrient and crop management, considering four major cereal crops (teff, maize, sorghum, and wheat) produced in Ethiopia. An agrohydrological modeling framework was developed to simulate climatic–hydrological–crop interactions. The model was applied to a reference period (1981–2010) and a future period (2020–2099) under scenarios of low, intermediate, and high greenhouse gas emissions with the following aims: (i) evaluate the current green water availability and AY potential, (ii) assess their climate-driven changes, and (iii) analyze the sensitivity of changes in AY to changes in rainfall and atmospheric evaporative demand. With regional variations based on climatic regimes, the main growing season (Meher, May to September) has an average AY of 79 % of a fully irrigated potential yield, with an average soil moisture deficit of 29 % of moisture content at full water-holding capacity. AY of the short growing season (Belg, February to May) is, on average, 37 % of the potential yield, with a soil moisture deficit of 56 %. Under the future climate, Meher is expected to experience small changes in AY the range of ±5 %, with dominantly positive trends in the 2030s and decreases in the 2060s and 2080s, mainly driven by changes in the atmospheric evaporative demand due to rising temperatures. The Belg regions are expected to experience increased AY that is dominantly controlled by increases in rainfall. On the other hand, a substantial yield gap is identified between actual and water-limited yields. This points to the need for combining green water management practices with nutrient and tillage management, plant protection, and cultivar improvement to close the yield gaps and to build up the climate resilience of farmers.