Developmental trajectories of conduct problems from childhood to adolescence: Early childhood antecedents and outcomes in adolescence

Children and adolescents display varying trajectories of conduct problems (CP), but it is unclear if these CP trajectories can be distinguished by childhood antecedents and adolescent outcomes. Therefore, we tested if child- and environmental-level risk factors predict CP trajectory membership and if CP trajectories are associated with developmental outcomes in adolescence. Six waves of data (teacher-, parent- and child self-reports) were used from 2,045 children. General growth mixture modeling identified four CP trajectories (waves 2-5): childhood-persistent, childhood-limited, adolescent-onset, and low CP. Relative to the adolescent-onset CP trajectory, wave 1 child- and environmental-level risk factors increased the likelihood of being in the childhood-persistent CP trajectory, though all but two (callous-unemotional traits and non-intact family) antecedents lost significance after controlling for wave 1 conduct problems. Few significant differences emerged in risk factors when comparing childhood-persistent and childhood-limited CP trajectories. Individuals identified in the adolescent-onset and childhood-persistent CP trajectories faced a higher risk for later maladjustment than those in the childhood-limited CP trajectory, whereas the adolescent-onset and childhood-persistent CP trajectories only differed in three out of 13 outcomes. Overall, findings indicate that individuals with CP are at risk for later maladjustment, but predicting the childhood-persistent trajectory of CP in young children is difficult.