Constraining Dike Opening Models With Seismic Velocity Changes Associated With the 2023–2024 Eruption Sequence on the Reykjanes Peninsula

Abstract The stress field perturbation caused by magmatic intrusions within volcanic systems induces strain in the surrounding region. This effect results in the opening and closing of microcracks in the vicinity of the intrusion, which can affect regional seismic velocities. In late November 2023, we deployed a distributed acoustic sensing interrogator to convert an existing 100‐km telecommunication fiber‐optic cable along the coast of Iceland's Reykjanes peninsula into a dense seismic array, which has run continuously. Measuring changes in surface wave moveout with ambient noise cross‐correlation, we observe up to 2% changes in Rayleigh wave phase velocity following eruptions in the peninsula's 2023–2024 sequence that are likely associated with magmatic intrusions into the eruption‐feeding dike. We apply a Bayesian inversion to compute the posterior distribution of potential dike opening models for each eruption by considering measurements for varying channel pairs and frequency bands, and assuming this velocity change is tied to volumetric strain associated with dike‐opening. Our results are in agreement with those based on geodetic measurement and provide independent constraints on the depth of the dike, demonstrating the viability of this novel inversion and new volcano monitoring directions through fiber sensing.