Decomposing the Impact of Agricultural Mechanization on Agricultural Output Growth: A Case Study Based on China’s Winter Wheat

Agricultural mechanization plays a critical role in addressing labor shortages and promoting sustainable agricultural production in developing countries. However, few studies have explored the mechanisms by which mechanization affects agricultural output through various channels, especially identifying the key drivers of this association. Taking winter wheat as an example, this study investigates how and to what extent agricultural mechanization affects agricultural output using county-level panel data from China during 1998–2016. The results show that mechanization has a significant positive impact on winter wheat output. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that this positive impact is more pronounced in the plains with better transport conditions. Further decomposition of winter wheat output growth shows that mechanization drives winter wheat output growth through both expansion in sown area and increase in yield, with the former being the dominant pathway. These findings enrich the understanding of how mechanization increases agricultural output and provide policy guidance for leveraging its potential to promote agricultural development in developing countries.