A network outcome analysis of psychological risk factors driving suicide risk in emergency department patients

Abstract Different theories of suicide propose somewhat different psychological factors that lead to suicidal thoughts and behaviors. For example, Beck’s theory highlights hopelessness, while the interpersonal–psychological theory of suicide emphasizes burdensomeness, lack of belonging and fearlessness about death. Surprisingly, few studies have tested which theoretically proposed psychological factors are most predictive of suicidal thoughts and behaviors. We used network outcome analysis to disentangle the effects of these constructs in predicting suicidal ideation, suicide plans and attempts. Participants were 1,412 patients presenting to an emergency department with psychiatric complaints, with follow-up assessments one month and six months ( n = 938) later. Here we showed that different psychological factors predicted different parts of the continuum of suicidal thoughts and behaviors. Lack of belongingness was most predictive of suicidal ideation (partial correlation (pcor) = 0.14), acquired capability for death (that is, fearlessness of death) was most predictive of suicide planning (pcor = 0.08), and hopelessness was most predictive of suicide attempts (pcor = 0.12). Individuals’ explicit associations with death (that is, death = me) prospectively predicted all three outcomes (pcor = 0.13–0.23). The occurrence of suicidal thoughts and behaviors is best predicted using constructs from several different theories of suicide. Future theoretical and empirical work should integrate components of existing theories.