Identifying the Key Controlling Factors of Icings in Permafrost Regions: A Case Study of Eruu, Sakha Republic, Russia

Icings, a significant hydrogeological phenomenon in permafrost regions, form when groundwater flows to the surface or through river crevices and freezes under low temperatures. These formations pose serious threats to infrastructure, including roads, railways, and bridges, while also serving as vital freshwater resources. Despite their importance, the mechanisms governing icing formation and the quantitative relationships between groundwater-controlling factors—such as freeze–thaw processes and precipitation—and icing distribution remain poorly understood. This knowledge gap hinders disaster prevention efforts and the sustainable utilization of water resources in cold regions. This study investigates the development patterns and influencing factors of icings in Eruu, a high-latitude permafrost region, using Landsat 4–5 TM, Landsat 7 ETM+, Landsat 8 OLI, and Landsat 9 OLI imagery with a 30 m resolution (2005–2024) and meteorological and geothermal data. By combining NDSI and MDII, the differentiation accuracy of water bodies was improved, and the K-Means clustering algorithm was applied to extract the icing region. The results revealed that the annual icing surface area ranged from 208,800 to 459,000 m2, with a minimum in 2009 and a maximum in 2011. The average annual increase was approximately 4304.5 m2 (p = 0.0255). Icings began freezing in October, radiating outward from the center, and melted by late May or early June. The Pearson correlation analysis showed (1) a strong negative correlation between snowfall and icing area (r = −0.544); (2) a positive correlation between freezing duration and icing area (r = 0.471); and (3) over the study period, annual average temperature and total precipitation exhibited no obvious change trend, with weak positive correlations between icing area and total precipitation (r = 0.290) and annual average temperature (r = 0.248). The observations of icing areas will be further applied to disaster prevention efforts. Additionally, the source of icings is clean and can be extracted for drinking purposes. Therefore, these findings enhance the understanding of icing mechanisms, support the prediction of icing development, and inform disaster prevention and resource management in permafrost regions.