Combining Forecasts for the 2025 German Federal Election: The PollyVote

ABSTRACT This article presents a forecast for the 2025 German federal election using the PollyVote method, which combines data from polls, expectations, and models to improve predictive accuracy. Building on its application in previous elections, PollyVote highlights the advantages of integrating diverse forecasting approaches while providing insights into their development and performance over time. Three weeks before Election Day, the PollyVote predicts the CDU/CSU will secure the largest vote share at 30.3%, followed by the AfD (20.6%), SPD (17.3%), Greens (12.6%), and the new leftist party BSW (5.1%). The FDP (4.1%) and the Left (3.9%) are forecast to fall short of the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation. Although the forecasts from individual components show broad agreement, one model that excludes public opinion data diverges, suggesting that polls may overestimate support for the CDU/CSU and underestimate the SPD’s performance.