The <i>Zweitstimme</i> Forecast for the German Federal Election 2025: Coalition Majorities and Vacant Districts
This article forecasts the German Federal Election of 2025. We used our previous forecasting models to provide national-level forecasts for party-vote shares and district-level outcomes for candidate votes. We show that the combination of both models allowed us to calculate forecasts for both coalition majorities in Parliament and “vacant districts” under recent electoral reforms.
Authors
- Thomas Gschwend (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8656-9622)
- Simon Munzert (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4760-367X)
- Lukas F. Stoetzer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2486-7496)
- Hannah Rajski (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3231-7016)
- Cornelius Erfort (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8534-7748)
- Elias Koch (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0000-3341-219X)
Institutions
- University of Mannheim (DE)
- Hertie School (DE)
Publication Details
- Journal
- PS Political Science & Politics
- Published
- 2025-02-20
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1017/s1049096525000150
- Citations
- 1
- Primary Topic
- German Economic Analysis & Policies
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 3.13