Milorad Dodik’s metamorphosis and the hijacking of the Dayton peace agreement

Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is currently facing a situation where the rule of law (whose promotion and strengthening is one of the European Union’s main priorities in BiH and the wider Western Balkan region), has become an area for the further destabilisation of the country’s political and security situation by dominant local political actors, as the case of Milorad Dodik shows. The reactions of some International Community actors (e.g., the High Representative Christian Schmidt), who aim to prevent further destabilisation, are subsequently questioned, as their (and their decisions’) legitimacy is downplayed by local BiH actors and significant states (e.g., China and the Russian Federation). The aim of this article was thus not only to examine the logic behind Dodik’s long-term political strategy in BiH, but also to demonstrate his capability to subvert the system established by the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) via standard legislative procedure, for the sake of securing his own power position in the country’s political environment. It also analyses HR Schmidt’s use of illiberal means to reach liberal outcomes, and his response to Dodik’s activities of June and July 2023. The unique insights from thirty-nine personalised semi-structured interviews, which took place in parts of BiH (Sarajevo, Mostar, Banja Luka, and Tešanj) in May, June, October and November 2023, and January and February 2024, as part of the author’s ethnographic research, are presented in the article. The interviewed individuals have backgrounds in academia, culture, media and local politics. The analysis demonstrates that Dodik’s actions should be interpreted within the broader context of BiH’s political landscape, where ethno-nationalism is intertwined with power distribution and formalised by the provisions outlined in the DPA. Although his secessionist rhetoric has intensified since 2021, Dodik’s political strategy has pragmatic contours, which means that global geopolitical developments could play a more significant role in deepening the political crisis in BiH. A return to greater interventionism from current HR Schmidt is therefore not an adequate panacea for the country’s ongoing political complexities.