Effects of long-term meteorological trends on streamflow in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), Australia 1981–2020

The Northern Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. We estimated the impacts of meteorological trends on streamflow over a 40-year period for seven catchments in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin (NMDB), Australia. We found that meteorological trends over the 1981–2020 period explain all the streamflow decline in catchments with little or no irrigation withdrawals, whereas in catchments with substantial irrigation water withdrawals meteorological trends explained only about half the observed decline in streamflow. If the increase in water withdrawals for irrigation over the 2006–2020 period relative to 1981–2000 had, instead, been reallocated to mitigate declines in streamflow over the 1981–2000 period, the average annual gross value of irrigated agriculture (GVIA) in the NMDB would have been reduced by 9–14 %. If a water reallocation over the 2006–2020 period had been undertaken to maintain the same mean ratio of irrigation water withdrawals to streamflow over the 1980–2000 period, GVIA would have declined by 19–29 %. Our results highlight the importance of quantifying and partitioning the effects of long-term meteorological trends on streamflow in semi-arid and arid environments to improve water planning and allocation. • Streamflow analyses of aridity, rainfall and water withdrawals in Northern MDB. • Increased aridity and lower rainfall reduced streamflow 2001–2020–1981–2000. • Meteorological trends explain streamflow decline where there is little irrigation. • Meteorological trends explain half streamflow decline in irrigation catchments.