Carbon emission reduction potential of municipal solid Waste-to-energy under resource mismatch patterns: Evidence from urban agglomerations in China

• The carbon emission inventory of municipal solid waste incineration treatment is established from point-surface sources. • The energy recovery is integrated into waste incineration industry in the carbon efficiency measurement framework. • The energy mix of the incineration industry is affected by the mismatched resources in different urban agglomerations. • Integrated regional waste management and carbon reduction contribute to global sustainable development . Rapid urbanization exacerbates the contradiction between energy recovery from Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) and climate change mitigation under regional resource misdistribution. This study establish a high-precision MSW incineration treatment carbon emission accounting inventory based on the activity data of 166 cities and 324 incineration power plants in four major urban agglomerations in China. Based on the identified key drivers affecting the spatial differentiation of Carbon Emission Efficiency (CEE) of municipal solid Waste-to-energy (WTE), we discussed the long-term environmental impacts of energy recovery on integrated regional comprehensive management. The results indicate the share of carbon emissions from WTE increased from 16.18 % to 63.67 %, and the carbon reduction potential from energy substitution increased from 1.19 Mt to 16.63 Mt. The carbon reduction rate of the policy scenario that focuses on energy recovery efficiency is optimal. This study provides a sustainable vision and scientific policy recommendations for promoting integrated regional waste management.