Forest-Based Employment in the Southern United States Under Climate Change: Historical Impacts and Future Projections

Abstract The southern United States (US) is the largest producer of timber products in the world, which faces significant threat from climate driven extreme weather events. The forest products industry is particularly vulnerable to climate change when production is seasonal and working conditions are affected by temperature and precipitation. This study estimates the impacts of climatic factors on forest-based employment in the US South using county-level panel data from 2001 to 2021. Our empirical estimates between employment and climatic variables are employed to project the forest-based employment through 2070 under Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios -- RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Results suggest that precipitation is positively correlated with the aggregate forest-based employment and wood product and furniture manufacturing sectors. We find a negative relationship between temperature and employment in the aggregate forest-based employment and furniture manufacturing sector. The future projections suggest a decline in aggregate forest-based employment by 9% and 16% by 2070 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, relative to a constant climate baseline scenario. These results offer implications for forest managers, policy makers, and employers in forest-based industries, as they plan for future management decisions and employment opportunities under a changing climate.