Some Problems of the Current State and Development Trends of Approaches to Predicting Conflicts with an Ethnic Component

Conflicts with an ethnic component are objectively difficult to predict. The current state of their forecasting allows us only to state a general trend: increase, stability or decrease in tension in relations between representatives of various ethnic communities. At the same time, effective forecasts are possible only at the national level or at the territorial level of large regions. This level of forecasting leaves many potential conflicts at the subnational and local levels “in the shadows”. These conflicts have the opportunity to develop, unexpectedly reach the level of escalation and increase the territorial scale and the number of people involved in the conflict. The needs of practice dictate the need to move to forecasting for small territories and communities of people. The development and dissemination of methods for such forecasting is the main global trend in the field of forecasting conflicts with an ethnic component. At present, forecasting methods focus on the monitoring stage, that is, the collection and primary analysis of information. The actual forecast is carried out mainly by experts according to poorly standardized procedures. The creation of more rigorous methodologies for forecasting conflicts with an ethnic component remains an important research and applied task.