The importance of generalized trust for mortality and economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe

Abstract Aim This study investigates the role of trust in others with respect to mortality and economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic. Subject and methods The study analyses data among 42 European countries on mortality up to 30 April 2021. The study proposes a model in which trust affects COVID-19 mortality through two channels: (1) income per capita, which is associated with traits of society that are important for mortality, and (2) compliance with advice from experts and authorities. Results The main result is that an increase in trust by one standard deviation corresponds to a reduction in the COVID-19 death rate by 43%. One standard deviation corresponds to the difference in trust between, for example, the United Kingdom and Switzerland or the Netherlands. The results show that compliance accounts for 60–90% of the total impact of trust on mortality, while the impact of trust through income per capita accounts for the rest. Epidemics are likely to reduce contact with others, including contact where economic activity takes place. The study estimates that 1000 COVID-19 deaths per million inhabitants resulted in a decrease in gross domestic product of 4.4% in European countries. For the UK, for example, this amounts to about 1.4 million GBP for each avoided COVID-19 death. Conclusion The level of trust was an important determinant for mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in European countries, and the major part of the impact can be attributed to compliance.