Assessing the impact of China’s forest chief system on forest ecological security: An integrated ArcGIS and econometric analysis

• The forest ecological security index system was constructed by incorporating the institutional characteristics of China. • From 2012 to 2022, China's forest ecological security showed a fluctuating increase. • Implementing the forest chief system enhanced China's forest ecological security. • Implementing the forest chief system has promoted the development of the regional forestry economy. China has implemented the Forest Chief System (FCS) policy to manage forest ecosystems systematically, rapidly altering the ecological security status of China’s forests and providing valuable institutional experience for the sustainable development of both forests and humanity. This study employs an evaluation system combining the “Two Mountains Theory” and the Driving-Pressure-State-Impact-Response-Management (DPSIRM) model, utilizing the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method to establish the China Forest Ecological Security Index from 2012 to 2022. With ArcGIS- and econometric-based methods to systematically analyze the changes in China’s Forest Ecological Security Index (FESI) before and after implementing the Forest Chief System (FCS), including multi-period Difference-in-differences (DID) model policy effect testing, mediation effect analysis, heterogeneous impact analysis, economic consequence examination, spatiotemporal change analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, convergence analysis and grey forecasting. The research findings reveal an upward trend in China’s Forest Ecological Security Index (FESI) over the study period, increasing from 0.1630 in 2012 to 0.1749 in 2022. This trend is projected to continue, with the FESI anticipated to reach 0.1792 by 2027. Additionally, spatial autocorrelation and convergence exist in China’s FESI. Implementing the Forest Chief System promotes the improvement of China’s FESI. The policy effect is facilitated by fiscal decentralization’s mediating role and moderated by the forest resource endowment. The promotional effect increases the longer the implementation time. Implementing the FCS also promotes regional economic development. Related analysis indicates that 30.2% of forestry economic growth results from the FCS through the FESI mediating effect. The research conclusions encapsulate the Chinese experience, enrich the study of global forest ecological security, and provide research cases for the development of forest ecological security worldwide.