Assessing the impact of artificial snowmaking on Dagu Glacier variation: a case study from a tourism glacier

The study combines field observations and modeling to assess the impact of artificial snowmaking on the Dagu Glacier Landscape No.17, with a focus on long-term changes in glacier thickness under varying snowmaking durations (5, 10, and 20 years) and intensities (low: 0.1 m d^-1, medium: 0.15 m d^-1, and high: 0.2 m d^-1). The finds indicate that the DGL17 glacier has undergone an average annual thickness reduction of 2.5 m from 2021 to 2024, with its terminus retreating by approximately 4 m. Projections suggest that the glacier may completely disappear within the next four years. The study evaluates different snowmaking regimes under three climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), finding that high snowmaking delay the extinction of the glacier, particularly under high supply modes. Implementing a 30-day snowmaking cycle over a period of 5 to 10 years extends glacier survival by an additional 5 to 10 years. Furthermore, a 60-day snowmaking cycle with high snow supply could prolong the glacier's lifespan and may increase its peak thickness by up to 50 m after 20 years of artificial snowmaking. Additionally, a positive correlation between snowmaking costs and conservation benefits suggests that the high supply, 60-day snowmaking model could enable the glacier's survival until mid-century, thereby yielding economic returns from tourism. This study offers valuable insights into glacier management, especially in regions where tourism is a key economic driver.