Exploring Trigeneration in MSW Gasification: An Energy Recovery Potential Study Using Monte Carlo Simulation

This study evaluates the potential of gasification-based energy-from-waste (EfW) as a sustainable alternative to the current incineration facility in an industrial zone of a major UK city. The city generates approximately 475,000 tonnes of municipal solid waste (MSW) annually, with around 285,000 tonnes suitable for gasification-based energy recovery. Using a Monte Carlo type approach, we assess energy outputs across three scenarios: electricity-focused; balanced; hydrogen-focused. Results show that the industrial zone’s annual demand for heat and electricity are covered by all three scenarios, although the analysis does not seek to balance supply and demand over sub-annual timeframes. This suggests that energy-from-waste can support local energy demand and enable industrial symbiosis. At the city scale, however, only 7% of annual electricity demand is covered by the electricity-focused scenario with the balanced scenario only covering 4%. The hydrogen-focused scenario yields enough hydrogen annually to power up to 3400 buses, well beyond the current fleet of 144 and the target fleet of 480 by 2035, positioning the area as a potential hydrogen hub. The balanced scenario offers adaptable energy outputs, supporting diverse energy needs and reducing dependency on conventional incineration.