Risk Assessment Considering the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Power Grid Anomalies Under Tropical Cyclones

The increasing frequency of tropical cyclones caused by global warming poses a serious threat to the safe operation of coastal power grids, making it urgent to develop methods for quantitatively assessing the risks of spatiotemporal grid anomalies. This paper proposes a risk assessment method for power grids under the influence of tropical cyclones, with a focus on the spatiotemporal evolution of grid failures. First, the abnormal impact of meteorological factors on power grid equipment is analyzed, revealing the time-varying characteristics of equipment failures. Next, by incorporating power flow redistribution, an abnormal evolution mechanism of the grid that considers the coupling effect of meteorological factors and power flow was established. Then, by identifying the abnormal propagation paths and corresponding quantitative risk assessment metrics, the evolution of system failures during tropical cyclones was analyzed, and the failure chains were evaluated for risk. Finally, simulations based on the IEEE 14 system were conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method in modeling the evolution of grid anomalies and failure processes.