Compound exposure: Climate change, vulnerability and the energy-extractives nexus in the Pacific

• Increased demand for energy transition minerals and metals (ETMs) for renewables will compound exposure to the effects of mining and climate change in the Pacific. • We mapped 163 ETM mining projects in the Pacific and pre-existing vulnerabilities where these projects occur. • We compare Pacific ETM projects with a global dataset. • Vulnerability indicators for the Pacific are generally higher compared to global results. • A scramble for Pacific resources will create new perverse patterns of harm in places already exposed to multiple intersecting stressors and vulnerabilities. A global push for an energy transition to combat climate change is fuelling demand for energy transition minerals and metals (ETMs) needed for renewable energy-systems. As the primary solution to our planetary problem, the energy transition helps to enlarge the extractive industries and increases the pressure to extract ETMs from places already acutely exposed climate change, like the Pacific Islands region. In this paper we develop the concept of compound exposure to examine the combined effects of extraction and climate change in the Pacific. Drawing from a global dataset of ETM projects, we have created a first-of-kind sub-set of ETM projects in the Pacific, mapped against indicators of environmental, social, governance and climate vulnerability for the places where those projects are located. We found higher levels of situated vulnerability around ETM projects in the Pacific compared to global results. A rush for the resources in the Pacific will compound the consequences of climate change and the multiple stressors associated with resource extraction and will enlarge exposure to harm. We argue that extractivist solutions to climate change work to close off other pathways and amplify the worst effects of compound exposure in the Pacific, and beyond.