Fractional-order modeling of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) transmission: Insights from infected animals to humans and healthcare deficiencies

The Ebola virus outbreak in 2014 significantly impacted Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone in Western Africa, with fruit bats serving as natural hosts that transmitted the disease to wild animals. Close contact between infected animals and humans led to a subsequent human-to-human transmission of the virus. In this paper, we develop a fractional-order differential equation model to analyze the spread of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) through two primary transmission routes: from infected animals to humans (predator-prey dynamics) and human-to-human interactions using an SEIR-based framework. In addition, the model incorporates socio-economic factors, including the lack of healthcare infrastructure, inadequate hospitalization, and low public awareness, which exacerbate virus transmission, particularly during the handling of deceased bodies in traditional burial practices. We apply the Routh-Hurwitz stability criteria to study the local and global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points, both in the presence and absence of public awareness. Through a Lyapunov function, we demonstrate the global stability of the system’s positive equilibrium. Our numerical simulations reveal that human-to-human transmission, driven by inadequate medical support and insufficient awareness, plays a critical role in the sustained spread of EVD. The findings underscore the importance of improving healthcare systems and enhancing public awareness to control future outbreaks. These results contribute to the understanding of EVD dynamics through a novel fractional-order approach, highlighting critical factors that influence the spread of the disease in resource-limited settings.