Simulation Analysis of Micro-Agent Innovation’s Impact on Regional Economy, Energy, and Carbon Emissions: A Case Study of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Using the AGIO Model

In the context of carbon emission reduction, innovation by micro-agents is crucial for regional sustainable development. This paper investigates how micro-agent innovation impacts the sustainable development of industries within a region. To achieve this, we construct an agent-based and input–output (AGIO) model, which combines agent-based simulation at the micro level with the input–output model at the macro level. Using this model, we focus on the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, analyzing micro-agent innovation activities and conducting scenario simulations based on three key factors: innovation strength, profitability, and employee motivation. The study examines the effects of micro-agent innovation on the economy, energy, and carbon emissions in the BTH region from 2017 to 2060. The findings indicate that, (1) in terms of economic structure, micro-agent enterprises with higher profitability stimulate faster economic growth compared to the other two factors. Additionally, the innovation strength of micro-agent enterprises has the greatest impact on the industrial structure in Beijing, while profitability most influences Tianjin, and employee motivation has the strongest effect on Hebei. (2) Regarding energy consumption and energy structure, energy consumption declines rapidly after reaching its peak, and the energy structure shifts towards relatively low-carbon sources such as natural gas and electricity. Among the three influencing factors in this study, micro-agent innovation strength has the most significant impact on energy consumption in the industrial sector, with this influence intensifying over time, while profitability has the most pronounced effect on the evolution of the energy structure. (3) Concerning carbon emissions, before the carbon peak, the profitability of micro-agent enterprises exerts the most substantial influence on emissions in the region. After the peak, the impact of innovation strength becomes more pronounced. This research enriches the existing body of knowledge on the complex interplay between micro-level innovation and macro-level sustainable development, while providing valuable insights and actionable policy recommendations for steering regional economic transformation and environmental sustainability amidst the challenges posed by carbon emission reduction.