Trade reserve and exchange rate: a comparative analysis of high, moderate, and low trade openness countries

This study aims to comprehensively examine the impact of trade reserves (TR) on exchange rates (ER) across different degrees of openness economies – specifically high, moderate, and low openness – from 1997 to 2020. Utilizing advanced panel regression techniques, the research assesses long-term dynamics through Pedroni cointegration and explores causal relationships via Granger causality tests. The findings indicate both long-term and short-term relationships between TR and ER. Notably, the study reveals a significant inverse effect of TR on ER, with the impact of trade on ER being particularly pronounced in low-openness economies.