SOURCES OF ERRORS IN FORECASTING SURGE LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS AT THE DON RIVER MOUTH BASED ON HYDRODYNAMIC MODELING

The paper deals with methodological aspects of short-term forecasting of water levels based on the hydrodynamic model of the Don River mouth area coupled with the hydrothermodynamic model of the Sea of Azov. The Don Model calculation-simulation package makes it possible to promptly transmit to interested users the information about water level changes in the navigable branch of the Don River so that this information is provided with a daily lead time and hourly discreteness. These calculations are especially relevant in forecasting surges. The paper analyses the results of prognostic calculations for the period of the trial operation of the Don Model package, as well as the results of diagnostic calculations aimed at identifying the main sources of forecast errors in the periods with intensive surge fluctuations.