Risk prediction score and equation for progression of arterial stiffness using Japanese longitudinal health examination data

The brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) is useful for evaluating arterial stiffness. No longitudinal studies have examined the association between multiple arterial stiffness risk factors and increased baPWV. We sought to identify factors associated with baPWV ≥1400 cm/s within 5 years and create an equation and simple risk score to predict its occurrence, using data from a large-scale Japanese health examination database. Of 10,284 participants aged 30-69 years for whom follow-up data were available over a 5-year period, 3394 men and 2710 women with baseline baPWV<1400 cm/s were analyzed. We used age, body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), heart rate (HR), fasting blood sugar (FBS), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), triglyceride (TG), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), habitual exercise, habitual drinking, and smoking history as variables. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, baPWV≥1400 cm/s was associated significantly with age, BMI, SBP, DBP, HR, FBS, and TG in men and age, SBP, DBP, HR, and smoking history in women. A prediction score based on these factors yielded an area under the curve (AUC) for the 5-year incidence of baPWV≥1400 cm/s of 0.68 for men and 0.71 for women. Furthermore, a risk prediction equation for the 5-year incidence of baPWV≥1400 cm/s showed an AUC = 0.71 for men and 0.77 for women. The prediction equation and a simple prediction score are easy to implement clinically. The predictive ability of these scores and equations for arterial stiffness should be validated in prospective studies. The risk score is the sum of all points, which risk factors were significantly associated with the 5-year incidence of baPWV>1400 cm/s in the multivariate logistic regression analysis. The AUC for the 5-year incidence of baPWV>1400 cm/s was 0.68 for men and 0.71 in women.