Are hurricane-driven forest management decisions coupled with rising urbanization affecting the forest carbon dynamics in the Gulf of Mexico? A case study from Perdido watershed in the Panhandle Florida

Understanding the impacts of hurricane-driven forest management and urbanization on forest carbon is vital for balancing climate mitigation and sustainable land use. It is especially true as these factors significantly influence carbon storage , emissions, and forest resilience, shaping global carbon budgets and informing adaptive strategies and policies. Since 2001, urbanization in the Gulf of Mexico has risen annually by 2.55 %, alongside increasing hurricane frequency. This study examines how urban growth and landowner responses to frequent hurricanes affect carbon dynamics in Florida's Perdido watershed, using a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model for land use projection and the InVEST model for carbon quantification. Nine scenarios combining low (LUR), current (CUR), and high (HUR) urbanization rates with 0 %, 25 %, and 50 % increases in hurricane frequency (HF) were analyzed. By 2050, urban land ranged from 5.28 % to 6.12 %, while forestland spanned 40.3 %–47.6 %. Forest conservation increased by 3.1 % (LUR+HF50 %) and 3.7 % (HUR+HF50 %) compared to HF25 % scenarios. Carbon storage varied from 466.5 thousand metric tons (LUR+HF25 %) to 1,055.1 thousand metric tons (LUR+HF50 %) and from 1,213.2 thousand metric tons (HUR+HF25 %) to 1,572.2 thousand metric tons (HUR+HF50 %), reflecting higher carbon sequestration with greater conservation efforts. These findings highlight the need for targeted policies to mitigate natural hazards, promote resilience, and support sustainable land use planning .