Research on Safety Index of Telecommunication System Based on Markov Chain and State Continuity Analysis

In order to solve the problem of being able to comprehensively, intuitively and dynamically reflect the safety of railroad telecommunication system, this paper proposes a research method of safety index of telecommunication system based on Markov chain and state continuity analysis. Adopting Markov chain theory, an average state transfer matrix is established by analyzing the transfer probability between the three states of normal, fault and accident of the telecommunication equipment in a certain period of time. At the same time, the state continuity coefficient is introduced to quantify the impact of the duration of each state in a certain period of time on the system safety, and a comprehensive safety index model reflecting the dynamic safety of the telecommunication system is constructed. Finally, an example verification is carried out with a telecommunication system as an example, and the results show that the model can accurately capture the change trend of the equipment state, significantly improve the ability to reflect the operational safety condition of the telecommunication system, and provide a reliable reference basis for equipment management and maintenance decision-making.