A Dynamic Risk Assessment and Mitigation Model

In the current operational landscape, organizations face a growing and diverse array of cybersecurity challenges, necessitating the development and implementation of innovative and effective security solutions. This paper presents a novel methodology for dynamic risk assessment and mitigation suggestions aimed at assessing and reducing cyber risks. The proposed approach gathers information from publicly available cybersecurity-related open sources and integrates it with environment-specific data to generate a comprehensive understanding of potential risks. It creates multiple distinct risk scenarios based on the identification of vulnerabilities, network topology, and the attacker’s perspective. The methodology employs Bayesian networks to proactively and dynamically estimate the probability of threats and Fuzzy Cognitive Maps to dynamically update vulnerability severity values for each risk scenario. These elements are combined with impact estimations to provide dynamic risk assessments. Furthermore, the methodology offers mitigation suggestions for each identified vulnerability across all risk scenarios, enabling organizations to effectively address the assessed cybersecurity risks. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology, a case study is presented, demonstrating its practical application and efficacy.