Analysis and prediction of winners in professional padel: sex and set outcome differences

Objectives: 1) assess differences in winners between male and female professional padel players during 5 seasons (2018-2022); 2) assess differences in winners between winning and losing pairs of a set during 5 seasons (2018-2022); and 3) predict the evolution of winners in the coming seasons (2023-2027). Methodology: 4,048 winners (2,268 men´s winners and 1,780 women´s winners) of 2,024 sets (1,134 men's and 890 women's) were analyzed from the World Padel Tour circuits (2018-2022). Using Student's t-test for independent samples, with 95% confidence intervals and effect size (Cohen's d). Results: a significantly higher number of winners in men’s padel (.001 < p < .029; ES: 0.257 < d < 0.587), except for losing pairs in the third set and during 2020 and 2021. For the second aim, winning pairs produced significantly more winners (p < .001; ES: 0.502 < d < 1.678), except in 2020. Concerning the third aim, the number of winner/set is foreseen to remain consistently random (2023-2027: men’s winning pairs:20-24; losing pairs: 16-20; women’s winning pairs: 18-21; losing pairs: 14-18). Conclusions: men achieve more winners than women, winning pairs make more winners than losing pairs, and the number of winners will remain consistently random over the coming seasons.