Epidemiological foundations of the effectiveness of HIV INFECTION pharmacotherapy

HIV infection remains a serious issue in Ukraine, where the prevalence of the disease is 0.6% of the population, significantly exceeding the European average. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has proven effective in slowing disease progression and reducing virus transmission. Mathematical modeling is a modern tool for analyzing the impact of ART, but systematic studies on its effects in Ukraine are currently lacking. The aim of this study was to perform epidemiological modeling of HIV infection in Ukraine and analyze the impact of ART coverage rates and various parameters of the epidemic process. Materials. The study utilized epidemiological data on the dynamics of HIV infection and AIDS in Ukraine from 2014 to 2023. This included the number of new cases of HIV infection and AIDS, the total number of people living with HIV, mortality rates, and the number of HIV-positive individuals receiving ART during the observation period. Methods. Mathematical modeling of the dynamics of three epidemiological groups (susceptible, HIV-infected, and individuals in the AIDS stage) was employed. Regression analysis was used to examine the dependence of model parameters on ART coverage rates. Statistical data analysis and modeling were carried out using Microsoft Excel and Python programming environments, with the use of Matplotlib and Pandas libraries. Results. For the first time, an epidemiological model was proposed to describe the dynamics of three epidemiological population groups: those susceptible to infection, HIV-infected individuals, and individuals in the AIDS stage. The results revealed that epidemiological parameters such as the HIV transmission rate, the progression rate to the AIDS stage, and the mortality rate at the AIDS stage are functionally dependent on the proportion of HIV-positive individuals receiving ART. Systematic epidemiological modeling demonstrated that at maximum ART coverage levels, the number of HIV-infected individuals decreased by 24.74%, and the number of patients in the AIDS stage decreased by 48.93%. This highlights the necessity of expanding access to pharmacotherapy, determining the most effective treatment regimens, and lays the groundwork for further pharmacoeconomic analysis.