How Australia Will Meet Its 2030 Emissions Target—Mapping the Optimal Emissions Pathway

Australia submitted its updated nationally determined contribution (NDC) in 2022 and increased the ambition of its 2030 target, committing to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 43% below 2005 levels by 2030. A new set of policies was proposed in its NDC, but the potential effectiveness of these policies should be assessed. This research has applied an environmentally extended input–output analysis combined with linear programming and set six types of scenarios to assess the maximum GHG emission reductions in 2030. The six scenarios include “business as usual”, different levels of sector-differentiated growth, a low-carbon electricity mix, a reduction in the emissions intensity of the mining sector, an increase in the electricity efficiency of intermediate inputs, and the implementation of all measures. Results show that implementing all measures simultaneously can achieve Australia’s 2030 emission targets, with total emissions in 2030 being 317.62 Mt CO2-e, which is a 39.08% reduction compared to the BAU. This study contributes to understanding changes in scenarios for the development of carbon emissions to achieve Australian NDCs.