European Green Deal Strategies for Agriculture in Dynamic Urbanised Landscapes

Land use change and agricultural management have a considerable impact on land use patterns and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in dynamic urbanised landscapes. This study evaluated sustainable land allocation strategies in line with the European Green Deal. A constrained cellular automata land use model was employed to assess the impacts of Business-as-Usual (BAU), Land Sharing (LSH), and Land Sparing (LSP) scenarios, using open-access data from Flanders (Belgium). Under BAU, urban expansion reduced unregistered agricultural land by 495 km2, leading to higher GHG emissions despite an 11% increase in green space. LSH increased green space by 36% and enhanced landscape diversity, while LSP improved habitat coherence by 24%. Livestock-related methane (3.09 Mt CO2e) dominated GHG emissions, comprising more than 75% of the total, with cattle responsible for 73% of methane emissions. Nitrous oxide emissions reduced from 1.60 Mt CO2e to 1.44 (BAU), 1.43 (LSP), and 1.42 (LSH) Mt CO2e. Forest sequestration offset up to 34% of total emissions, removing −1.35 Mt CO2e. Green Deal measures mitigated emissions in all scenarios, with LSH achieving the highest gains. The results highlight the need for spatial strategies that integrate sustainable agricultural practices and balance productivity, nature conservation, and climate action under the European Green Deal.