Examination of meat, milk, and egg production in Turkiye using Trend models

The rising global demand for animal products due to world population growth highlights the need for taking significant steps in animal husbandry. Understanding the impact of advancements in animal husbandry on the production of animal products would help to identify sectoral deficiencies and to develop future strategies. The aim of this study was to determine variations in the indicators of animal products in Turkiye considering species and breed differences using trend analysis. The dataset covers data from 1991 to 2019 for milk and from 2001 to 2023 for egg production, red meat, and white meat production, obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute. To determine trends in the time series of animal product parameters, the Nonparametric Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test, Sen’s innovative (ST) trend test, Spearman’s rho (SR) test, Wald-Wolfowitz (WW) test, Cox-Stuart (CS) trend test, and Robust Rank – Order Distributional (RR) test were employed. To identify significant change-points in the time series, the Pettitt test was used. The results of the SR and MMK tests revealed the presence of upward trends in red meat production from Cattle, Sheep, Buffalo, and Goat; white meat production; egg production; as well as milk production from Sheep (Merino), Goat (Anatolian Black), Cattle (Dairy) and Cattle (Crossbred). Furthermore, an increasing trend was observed in the SR test for Goat (Anatolian Black) milk production. The WW and RR tests showed downward trends in the time series of milk production for Goat (Anatolian Black), Cattle (Domestic), and Buffalo. Upward trends were identified using the ST and CS methods in red meat production from Cattle, Sheep, and Goat; white meat production; and egg production. The results suggest that economic incentives and policies, as well as diseases, are significant factors for trends in animal husbandry. Consequently, increasing incentives and policies for animal husbandry and expanding cooperatives are important to support animal husbandry practices.