Solar Cycles: Can they be Predicted?

Abstract The solar magnetic field, thought to be generated by the motion of plasma within the Sun, alternates on the order of 11 yr cycles and is incompletely understood. Industries rely on accurate forecasts of solar activity, but can solar cycles be predicted? Of more than 100 predictions for cycle 25, most underestimated the amplitude (peak sunspot number). Fewer predictions were made for the timing of solar maximum, but timing predictions seem to be performing better than amplitude predictions. Reasons for inaccurate prediction are suggested, and perspectives are given on how future studies might improve upon the extant literature.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Research Notes of the AAS
Published
2025-02-18
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3847/2515-5172/adb60f
Primary Topic
Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

Solar Cycles: Can they be Predicted?

Floe Foxon
Research Notes of the AAS
Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics
article

Solar Cycles: Can they be Predicted?

Floe Foxon
article en

Abstract

Abstract The solar magnetic field, thought to be generated by the motion of plasma within the Sun, alternates on the order of 11 yr cycles and is incompletely understood. Industries rely on accurate forecasts of solar activity, but can solar cycles be predicted? Of more than 100 predictions for cycle 25, most underestimated the amplitude (peak sunspot number). Fewer predictions were made for the timing of solar maximum, but timing predictions seem to be performing better than amplitude predictions. Reasons for inaccurate prediction are suggested, and perspectives are given on how future studies might improve upon the extant literature.

Research Notes of the AASVol. 9(2)
Openalex Percentile: Top 98%
Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics
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Solar Cycles: Can they be Predicted? — Floe Foxon · Research Notes of the AAS (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS