Water agriculture nexus a system dynamics approach for the next three decades

Agriculture, being a major consumer of water resources, is crucial for ensuring global food security. Current patterns of water use and agricultural practices, if continued, are projected to cause severe water shortages, particularly in agriculture, by 2054. This water scarcity has already reduced crop cultivation, threatening future food and water security. This study introduces a dynamic system-based model to simulate water resources, focusing on agricultural water consumption and groundwater reclamation from 2025 to 2054. The model evaluates cultivated areas using three indicators: physical productivity, economic productivity, and water consumption. Under projected conditions, significant water shortages and declining underground water levels are anticipated. The most effective scenario involves halting cultivation of water-intensive crops, reducing groundwater withdrawal by 25%, and transferring 250 million cubic meters of water annually. This approach increases surface and underground water levels by 29.5% and 36.5%, respectively, and offsets 65.1% of the water shortage. These results emphasize the urgent need for sustainable water management to address future water scarcity and ensure agricultural and food security. The proposed model serves as a valuable tool for policymakers to design and implement strategies in water-scarce regions.